Apple Missed the Biggest Tech Shift in a Decade ...
But this is why it won't matter.
Here's the brutal truth:
Apple whiffed on AI.
Big time.
As Microsoft partnered with OpenAI.
Google rushed out Bard.
Amazon pushed on with Anthropic.
Apple sat on the sidelines.
Watching. Waiting.
Doing nothing.
Reminds me of some of the hardware they make.
The iPhone hasn't changed in 10 years.
Same look. Same feel.
Same everything.
Tim Cook and his team got comfortable.
Too comfortable.
Years of $100 billion dollar buybacks.
Apple has gotten lazy.
When ChatGPT exploded in 2022, Apple had two moves:
Build AI in-house
Buy AI startups
They picked option 3:
Do neither.
Now they're playing catch-up in the most important race of our lifetime.
Meta's got Llama.
Google's got Gemini.
Microsoft's got Copilot.
Apple's got ... Siri asking if you want to set a timer.
The company that "thinks different" forgot how to think at all.
But here's the trillion-dollar question:
Does it even matter?
As brutal as it’s been watching Apple fail.
It doesn’t matter.
AI Is Different
Past tech shifts hit consumers hard.
The internet?
You needed a PC, dial-up, monthly bills.
All new stuff.
The iPhone in 2007?
New device, very expensive data plans, it was a total habit change.
AI is different.
The heavy lifting happens at big companies.
They are buying $50,000 Nvidia GPUs.
They are paying for the servers.
Meta is even giving aways its models for free.
Consumers get served AI only if they need it.
Unlike the internet and the iPhone … there’s no hardware shift.
Personal computers went into living rooms.
iPhone went into pockets.
AI is layered into existing software.
The much bigger shift is happening at the enterprise level.
Coders using GitHub Copilot.
Writers and researchers use ChatGPT.
Video editors get AI tools built into software they already own.
Hundreds of AI startups solving tasks in new ways.
Corporations arm employees with AI.
The AI investment flows from businesses, not individuals.
Oracle ORCL 0.00%↑ didn’t post blowout earnings last week because the average American was buying their shit.
It’s because JP Morgan JPM 0.00%↑ is using it.
Corporations have quickly recognized three things about AI
It makes employees more efficient
It reduces the need for some hiring
It saves/makes the company money
You don’t need an MBA from Harvard to understand why businesses are spending so much on AI.
None of this is Apple’s game to play.
Apple doesn't need to lead AI software development.
OpenAI works on an iPhone.
Google Gemini works just fine on a Mac.
AI is not a consumer gadget.
It’s a business productivity tool.
Here's the thing: Apple missing AI's first wave might actually work in their favor.
Let Google and Microsoft burn billions training models. Let OpenAI fine-tune everything.
Apple can sit back and wait.
Eventually, these AI companies will bid to become the default on iPhones. Just like Google pays billions to be Safari's default search engine.
Apple gets AI without the R&D costs.
A working Siri would be nice.
But consumers aren't switching phones over voice assistants.
Apple has time here.
The real test comes when AI hardware hits the mainstream.
Robotics. Smart glasses. Wearables that actually matter.
Apple built its empire on revolutionary hardware that sold millions of units.
The iPhone. The iPad. The Apple Watch.
But they've gone quiet lately.
The autonomous car project? Dead.
If Apple misses the robotics wave too, that's when shareholders should worry.
Missing software is fixable. Missing the next hardware category isn't.
For now, the smart money flows to enterprise AI software. Semiconductors. Data centers. Eventually robotics.
Businesses are making money with AI.
Consumers are not.
Apple might catch the next wave.
But in many ways it won’t matter.
Apple is a consumer focused brand and AI isn’t being used by the average consumer.
Yet.
Follow me across social media. That would be cool
Hope you’re doing well,
Colin