Earnings Season & Yield Curves

Earnings season begins next week with (almost) all the major banks reporting. I’ll have a calendar below with dates you might want to have on your calendar.

It will be interesting to see what the CEO’s have to say about the inverted yield curve. It’s not a secret that when the 10-year and 2-year yield curve inverts - a recession happens 100% of the time. That’s because banks essentially borrow at the 2 year rate and lend near the 10 year rate. The longer the curve inverts - banks essentially can’t lend.

One lending segment we can look at are mortgage originations here in the United States. While the value of originations remains high (mainly due to high prices) the value is steadily declining Q/Q.

US Mortgage Originations By Quarter - Data

Does this mean sell all your stocks (and maybe your house) because the asset bubble is about to burst?

Absolutely not.

Keep in mind the Federal Reserve knows all this. They kept rates low until inflation broke that cycle. They will walk rates up until something breaks again - then slam them back down to zero to restart the easy money cycle.

In the meantime, expect higher volatility. If you’re still in accumulation mode with stocks/assets - be prepared to buy when the system is cracking. If you’re in retirement, or very close, you want to have a plan in place to preserve your wealth.

Earnings Calendar

Tentatively - these are the dates of some key earnings announcements. I'll be doing earnings videos on most of these the day they announce.

• JP Morgan (JPM) 4/13

• Blackrock (BLK) 4/13

• Wells Fargo (WFC) 4/14

• Goldman Sachs (GS) 4/14

• Bank of America (BAC) 4/18

• Netflix (NFLX) 4/19

• Tesla (TSLA) 4/20 (appropriately enough)

• AT&T (T) 4/21

• Verizon (VZ) 4/22

• Microsoft (MSFT) 4/26

• Google (GOOGL) 4/26

• Visa (V) 4/26

• Facebook (FB) 4/27

• Amazon (AMZN) 4/28

• Apple (AAPL) 4/28

About Me

I try not to post videos that stray too far from the subject matter. I also like for the focus to be on the company and not myself. But I do give a fair amount of advice and I think it’s only fair for people to know more about me.

Many of you know I’m a father of two boys. We were up early this morning & walked to school. I’ve been self employed for almost 2 decades - primarily working on content websites that make money from advertisements. My wife was a nurse, but during the pandemic wisely decided to take time off and will likely return to that field when the boys are a bit older.

My biggest challenge is dealing with anxiety & occasional panic attacks. Last week I didn’t post many videos or send the newsletter out. It’s also why I don’t do a ton of live stuff or collaborations. It comes & goes, this week is already much better.

I just want you to know how much your support means to me. I really look forward to the earnings videos & of course the Friday FAANG Stock Recap Show. With the Masters being this weekend, the weekend videos will return likely next week.

Thanks for being a subscriber, and I look forward to reading your comments this month on all the earnings videos to come.

Colin