NVIDIA Q1 Earnings Preview: Blackwell’s Ascent and the AI Boom’s Next Chapter

Can Nvidia top expectations as it shifts from Hopper to Blackwell?

As NVIDIA NVDA 0.00%↑ gears up to unveil its Q1 FY2026 earnings after market close on Wednesday, May 28, 2025.

With NVIDIA’s GPUs fueling the global AI revolution, recent earnings from partners Super Micro Computer SMCI 0.00%↑ and CoreWeave CRWV 0.00%↑ provide demand indicators, particularly for the Blackwell architecture.

Today I’ll cover the future expectations for Nvidia, key questions I have for the conference call, and

Q1 Expectations: A Solid Foundation Amid Transition

Wall Street anticipates NVIDIA will report Q1 revenue of $43.17 billion, a solid 65.7% year-over-year increase, reflecting the company’s dominance in AI and data center markets.

Earnings per share (EPS) is projected at $0.73, up 19% year-over-year, though tempered by a costly write-down of China-related inventory due to the Trump administration’s ban on certain NVIDIA GPU exports to the region.

With NVIDIA’s stock surging 26% over the past month, investor confidence is high, but the focus is shifting beyond Q1 to future quarters. The consensus outlook projects steady growth:

• Q2 FY2026: $45.54 billion (+51%)

• Q3 FY2026: $51.17 billion (+46%)

• Q4 FY2026: $56.58 billion (+44%)

• Q1 FY2027: $56.44 billion (+31%)

• Q2 FY2027: $58.71 billion (+28%)

Wall Street analysts suggest NVIDIA’s revenue may peak around $60 billion in 2026, but emerging trends indicate this could be conservative. The delayed ramp-up of Blackwell systems, just now scaling in volume, is shifting demand into early 2026, positioning NVIDIA for yet another growth surge.

Recall that data centers must plan well in advance. I believe this delay in Blackwell will cause customers to aggressively spend in 2026 - setting the stage for higher than expected revenue for Nvidia next year.

Additionally more players are entering the AI space. Just a year ago the “Big 3” dominated the conversation and spending: Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. However, new entrants are emerging including government spending in the Middle East, Elon Musk’s xAI, startup cloud providers CoreWeave and Nebius, along with an alliance between OpenAI and Oracle providing $100B+ in potential additional demand beyond the incumbent providers.

Blackwell: The Catalyst for NVIDIA’s Next Phase

Q1 represents a pivotal bridge quarter, as NVIDIA transitions from its Hopper GPUs to the highly anticipated Blackwell architecture.

Delays in shipping Blackwell systems in large quantities until late 2025 have deferred some demand - but the demand for the systems remains extraordinary.

Blackwell’s advanced performance is expected to drive innovation among AI software providers. Depending on the advancements, it will likely trigger another wave of spending as the competing companies must maintain aggressive spending just to keep up with each other.

SuperMicro Computer SMCI 0.00%↑ , a key NVIDIA partner specializing in AI-optimized server solutions, reported Q3 revenue of $4.6 billion, up 19% year-over-year but down 19% sequentially, missing forecasts.

On the surface the miss might seem like a negative for Nvidia.

However, CEO Charles Liang attributed the shortfall to customers pausing orders to shift to Blackwell GPUs against Hopper.

He expressed confidence in a rebound, with orders expected to materialize in Q4 (June) and Q1 FY2026 (September).

SuperMicro is now forecasting Q4 revenue of $5.6 billion to $6.4 billion.

CoreWeave CRWV 0.00%↑ a cloud provider tailored for AI workloads, further underscores Blackwell’s momentum.

In its Q1 FY2025 earnings, CoreWeave reported 420% year-over-year revenue increase to $982 million.

The company was the first to deploy NVIDIA’s GB200 Grace Blackwell systems at scale.

CoreWeave’s $25.9 billion revenue backlog, up 63% year-over-year, includes a landmark $11.9 billion OpenAI contract and a $4 billion expansion with another AI enterprise.

To meet “relentless” demand, CoreWeave plans $3 billion to $3.5 billion in Q2 CapEx and $20 billion to $23 billion for FY2025—an extraordinary commitment for a company projecting $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion in annual revenue.

Expanding Demand: Hyperscalers and Beyond

Emerging players like CoreWeave, Nebius NBIS 0.00%↑, and Middle East partners are amplifying growth.

Oracle’s ORCL 0.00%↑ recent $40 billion commitment for its Stargate data center, set to open in 2026, highlights the broadening appetite for NVIDIA’s solutions beyond just the core hyperscale customers Amazon, Google and Microsoft.

Additional well-funded companies continue to emerge, including Elon Musk’s xAI.

In the background remains Apple AAPL 0.00%↑ which will need to either heavily invest in its own AI efforts, or pass the compute power onto existing providers.

Overall, the demand for AI compute exceeds the companies ability to deliver. Every major cloud provider is turning away customers. The emergence of new software/services along with Apple lurking in the background should maintain a steady flow of compute demand well into 2026.

Key Questions for NVIDIA’s Earnings Call

1. Blackwell Production and Allocation: With SMCI and CoreWeave highlighting supply constraints, how quickly can NVIDIA scale Blackwell production to meet demand? Updates on allocation timelines will be critical to judging how much revenue Nvidia can achieve in the coming quarters.

2. Q2 Guidance: Current expectations are for $45B - with upside targets closer to $50B.

3. Geopolitical and Tariff Impacts: How will NVIDIA navigate export restrictions and potential tariff escalations, particularly after the China inventory write-down? Are the rumors true Nvidia will be able to re-enter the Chinese market?

4. Customer Diversification: Beyond hyperscalers, how is NVIDIA capitalizing on enterprise and emerging provider demand, such as Oracle, xAI and CoreWeave?

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See you then!

Colin