Thanks again for everyone that has subscribed! Expect the newsletter every Monday. I appreciate your support! - Colin
The Watchlist:
Wednesday you’ll have a Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve Chairman) press conference where he’ll likely discuss the rate hike the Federal Reserve will implement. The market has already priced in a .25 hike in the Fed Funds Rate - with expectations of a .50 hike being seen as unlikely.
Most pundits believe the Fed is backed into a corner. Raise rates too much & too fast and a recession is almost guaranteed. Don’t raise rates fast enough and high inflation will trigger the recession.
Is it possible the Fed can eat its cake & have it too? Or in other words, raise interest rates enough to tamp down inflation and avoid a recession?
Possibly. A look at the inflation data shows energy & car prices are large factors in the higher inflation data. However, the hurdles to clear lower energy prices seem steep. Seasonal demand will likely remain high & new supply coming online seems unlikely. The ConocoPhillips CEO was on CNBC last week and flatly said new oil patches take 8-12 months to actually extract any oil.
I’ve noted in several videos this year - sustained levels of inflation we are experiencing today always lead to an economic recession. The broader markets have been selling off since January - not because of Russia - but because I believe many institutional investors already are pricing in a recession in 2022.
The outlook for the S&P 500 has not changed since last week. The market is still locked in a downtrend and investors should assume that trend remains in tact.
Stocks I’m Buying
Short Term: BTC from a technical pattern has created some pretty basic trade setups. Playing the momentum in XLE, SLV, GLD, COM. I should note I already had about 3% of my IRA invested in energy/oil (XLE, CVX, COP) well before the recent spike. Additionally I have a fair amount of exposure to physical gold & silver - which actually exceeds my stock portfolio value.
Long Term: Nothing other than some tiny purchases in my IRA account - essentially as a hedge the Fed can have its cake and eat it too (described above). However, the list of stocks I’d like to buy is rather long. Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft - obviously. However, Netflix, Pinterest, The Joint, among a few others might make the cut when the time is right.
YouTube Channels I’ve Been Watching
Really been enjoying Blockworks Channel - which pretty much brings on interview guests & does deep dives into subjects. Too many good ones to list, but I really enjoyed a recent one on China’s Growth ending … very fascinating listen.
All Things Being Considered
I still remain fully invested in my core holdings. YTD IRA performance is -11.2% … which essentially mirrors the YTD of the S&P. Longer term the portfolio is up 86% over 3 years.
Lightly trading the momentum & quality setups since volatility is actually quite fun to trade. Speculative and high multiple stocks remain off my radar for the time being.
— Follow Me On Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/investorvideos/
— Follow Me On Twitter: https://twitter.com/investorvideos
What is a good entry price for PINS? Hope we get a video soon of your shopping list with good entry prices :)
Hey collin. love this format! exceited to invest with ya! Cheers